Alexander Manzyuk/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
- The price of gold has beaten all expectations for the year, reaching more than $2,500 per ounce.
- While higher demand explains some of the run-up, experts say there’s another side to the trend.
- Cash prices for gold also go up when the real value of currencies, including the US dollar, go down.
2024 has been a big year for gold.
The precious metal’s price has exceeded all expectations held at the start of the year, with the price last week reaching a fresh high of more than $2,500 per ounce.
Back in January, analysts surveyed by the London Bullion Metals Association forecasted 2024 highs ranging between $2,100 to $2,405.
Of course, there have been several “record highs” recently, and analysts are expecting more to come in what remains of the year.
But what makes this one a milestone is that the Hollywood-famous gold bricks weighing more than 27 pounds (400 troy ounces, to be precise) are now worth $1 million a piece.
People love round numbers, especially big round numbers with six zeroes, so the figure is capturing public attention even if most people will never actually buy the thing that price represents.
Either way, we have a new way to visualize a million dollars as a physical asset: these yachts, these houses, and now this gold bar.
Iconic and influential as the format may be (known in the industry as London Good Delivery Bars), private buyers tend to opt for smaller units, like kilograms, 100-gram, or one-ounce offerings.
More than the collectors snapping up bars and coins from Costco, gold experts told Business Insider the real force pushing prices to new heights are central bankers around the world. The prospect of interest-rate cuts — which are just around the corner in the US — generally boost gold because they lessen the relative appeal of other assets like Treasurys.
“I can tell you that FOMO has not as of yet seeped into the gold bullion market, as you might expect to be the case considering the run from $2000 – $2500,” Jonathan Da Silva, a trader with Kitco Metals, said in an email.
And even with the popularity of gold in the US, physical gold is seeing even stronger interest among non-Western consumers, according to Stephen Flood, director and cofounder of GoldCore, a precious metals services company headquartered in Ireland.
But experts tell Business Insider there’s another side to the trend.
“Demand is up, but currencies are being debased more,” Flood said.
Considered a “safe haven” asset, the cash price for gold also goes up when the real value of currencies, including the US dollar, the UK pound, and the Euro goes down. In other words, the price of gold rising is another way to see the buying power of a dollar falling lower.
A currency’s value can decline due to several reasons, most notably from inflation, but also from geopolitical risks and from the willingness of other countries to hold it in reserves.
The dollar has slid from representing more than 70% of the world’s reserve currency in 2000 to less than 60% today, while gold reserves have risen sharply since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Owning physical gold is a way to shield wealth from currency devaluation without the risk of investing in other financial instruments, said Jacob Diaz, CFO of Genesis Gold Group.
“As long as there’s room for the dollar to decrease in value, there is room for gold to increase in value,” he added.
Indeed, six years ago, a million bucks would get you two Good Delivery gold bars.
Meanwhile, in spite of gold’s unusually strong performance this year, the experts BI spoke to said long-term investors are much more concerned with protecting their wealth against downside risk.
High net-worth bullion buyers (the ones who might buy a 400-troy ounce bar) “are looking to exit fiat rather than gain more of it,” Da Silva said.
“They may look to gold as a means of preserving the value of their life’s labor for generations to come,” he added.
