Oil prices surged after OPEC postponed a planned increase in supply, and geopolitical tensions escalated as Iran vowed a “strong and complex” response to Israel. With Tuesday’s presidential election approaching, traders are quickly repositioning to manage risks. Treasury bonds are gaining momentum, while the dollar has softened.
“The narrowing polls are reflecting in market activity,” noted Shaniel Ramjee, co-head of multi-asset at Pictet Asset Management in London. “Investors who anticipated a Trump win have been buying dollars and offloading Treasurys, but now we’re seeing a shift as people work to avoid overly concentrated portfolios.”
Betting markets reveal divided sentiment. PredictIt odds now lean toward a Kamala Harris victory, while other betting platforms still indicate a higher likelihood of a Trump win.
Market Highlights:
- Treasury Yields: Yields fell as prices rose, with the 10-year yield dipping below 4.28%, down from Friday’s close at 4.361%, the highest level since early July.
- Stock Indices: Movement was modest. The Dow industrials slipped, while the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 saw slight gains.
- Oil Prices: Brent crude futures jumped about 2.5%, as OPEC delayed supply increases, and traders remained on edge over the potential for Iranian retaliation against Israel.
- Dollar Performance: The dollar weakened against major currencies, with the WSJ Dollar Index dropping around 0.6%.
