With Donald Trump’s inauguration looming on January 20th, the world faces a precarious ten-week transition. Even before the U.S. election, global instability was rife, with conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and tensions in the Pacific. Now, with Joe Biden’s authority waning and Trump eager to reshape American foreign policy, a period of limbo has emerged—one that America’s adversaries might exploit. To mitigate potential threats, the Biden and Trump teams must align on key issues to deter opportunistic moves from hostile nations.
Trump’s early appointments hint at a drastic shift in U.S. foreign policy. His choices of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Adviser, though traditionally conservative, indicate a hawkish stance toward China and Iran while expressing impatience with NATO and the war in Ukraine. Trade leadership may go to Robert Lighthizer, a strong protectionist set on reigniting trade wars, while the Pentagon is slated for an outsider with plans to challenge the so-called “deep state.” Trump’s team has also bypassed secure communication protocols, breaking norms by engaging in foreign dealings before taking office. A November 8th call with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, featured Elon Musk, underscoring Trump’s readiness for unconventional diplomacy. In response, some nations might seize this transition period to secure advantageous positions by January. For instance, some allies have increased defense spending, anticipating a more self-reliant security posture.
Yet, the risks are significant. Vladimir Putin could intensify his offensive to claim Ukrainian territory before peace negotiations commence. Israel may escalate strikes on Gaza or Lebanon, hoping for future U.S. support in a broader campaign against Iran. China, meanwhile, could test Taiwan and the Philippines to gauge America’s response. Rising tensions in the South China Sea signal that adversaries may seek to test U.S. resolve.
Although Biden and Trump may differ sharply in ideology, they share a common interest in preserving stability during this vulnerable period. Biden’s team, with its remaining military influence, must work to prevent a chaotic end to his administration. Likewise, if Trump assumes office amid an escalated Ukraine conflict, turmoil in the Middle East, and unchecked Chinese aggression, he would face substantial diplomatic and strategic challenges.
To mitigate these risks, the Biden and Trump teams should agree on a clear framework for the interim period. Key actions include reinforcing Ukraine by providing additional weapons and easing restrictions on its use of long-range missiles to counter Putin’s advances. Both administrations should also communicate to Israel that any unilateral strikes on Iran would not receive U.S. military backing. In the South China Sea, a firm stance on maritime rights must be reiterated to China.
The coming weeks may represent a turning point from America’s post-World War II internationalism to a more isolationist stance. However, with prudent action and collaboration between Biden’s and Trump’s teams, this transitional period need not result in global chaos.
