The US presidential race will be decided by these 7 states in 2024

• With the 2024 presidential race in full swing, both parties are eyeing their pathways to victory.
• Should Vice President Harris secure the Democratic nomination, she’ll face former President Trump.
• A band of swing states in the Midwest and Sun Belt are poised to determine the outcome.

Over the past two decades, the road to the White House — once dominated by Florida and Ohio — has evolved.

While bellwethers like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remain a critical part of the calculus for Democratic and Republican presidential nominees in reaching the 270 electoral vote threshold for victory, the Sun Belt region has also grown in importance.

For Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, who are poised to be opponents in November, every vote will be crucial in what is predicted to be a tight contest. And both campaigns are targeting a narrow band of seven swing states to capture the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Democrats — who defied conventional political wisdom in 2022 by retaining their Senate majority and minimizing major losses in the House despite losing control of the lower chamber — are working hard to hold the White House as they face voter unease over the economy and pushback over the Israel-Hamas war.

Before President Joe Biden declined to run for reelection in July 2024, Republicans believed that he would be a liability for Democrats. But the GOP’s political calculus for the race is scrambled until the Democrats select their new nominee.

And Republicans have had myriad struggles over the last two years as their stewardship of the House has not exactly worked out how they had hoped. They elected a speaker (Kevin McCarthy of California) who was subsequently removed and have struggled to enact an agenda under a new speaker (Mike Johnson of Louisiana) with a razor-thin majority. The series of events created a “chaos” narrative around the party, which doesn’t help at the top of the ticket.

The GOP must also contend with the toxicity of Trump’s political brand among a sizable contingent of voters, especially among suburbanites and Independents who are likely to decide the election.

One major issue that has continued to weigh down Republican candidates is abortion rights, especially as voters in an array of states have rejected several anti-abortion measures following the Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade. Democrats have won big in urban and suburban districts over the issue — from congressional races to local elections — and they’ve even made inroads in some GOP-leaning areas where blocs of Republicans support some form of abortion rights. 

Trump has been eager to take credit for installing three conservative justices on the Supreme Court, and in April 2024 he stated that abortion was now an issue to be determined in the states, frustrating many conservatives who have sought a national abortion ban.

It’s now set to be a defining issue of the 2024 race, especially in the battleground states.

Arizona

2012 margin: Romney +9.0%

2016 margin: Trump +3.5%

2020 margin: Biden +0.3%

Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election except for 1996 — when then-President Bill Clinton won the state over former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole by a little over 2 points.

Long associated with Barry Goldwater, the conservative political icon who was the Republican presidential nominee in 1964, the Grand Canyon State for decades had a decidedly red lean in federal races.

But as the population of Arizona has swelled, its political orientation has also shifted.

In 2012, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney easily won the state over then-President Barack Obama, but former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton whittled the GOP margin of victory down to just under 4 points in 2016.

Biden, buoyed by gains among the state’s burgeoning Latino population, narrowly won the state over Trump in 2020 by a little under 11,000 votes out of nearly 3.4 million ballots.

Democrats remain encouraged by their performance in Arizona in the 2022 midterms.

Not only did Secretary of State Katie Hobbs defeat MAGA-infused Kari Lake in the gubernatorial race, but Sen. Mark Kelly won a full six-year term over Republican Blake Masters. Adrian Fontes was also elected to succeed Hobbs over state Rep. Mark Finchem, who repeatedly questioned the 2020 presidential election results.

The eventual Democratic nominee must recreate a win in a state where Republicans have long been the dominant party. And Lake is now running in the state’s marquee Senate race, where she’s poised to face Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego should both candidates win their respective party primaries in August.

Georgia

2012 margin: Romney +7.8%

2016 margin: Trump +5.1%

2020 margin: Biden +0.2%

For decades, Republicans could easily depend on the Peach State’s electoral votes falling into their column. No more.

While GOP politicians were enjoying double-digit wins in statewide races, former Democratic state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams — who saw the possibility of a more politically-competitive Georgia — worked behind the scenes to build a turnout organization that could rival that of the Republican Party.

In 2018, Abrams came within 55,000 votes of winning that year’s gubernatorial election.

Two years later, Biden won the state by roughly 12,000 votes over Trump, followed by the dual 2021 runoff victories of Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff over Republicans Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, respectively.

The exponential growth of the Atlanta suburbs, driven by new Black, Asian, and Latino residents, has given the state a purple veneer — but the 2022 midterms also showed the limitations of Democratic gains.

Warnock won a full six-year term in a December runoff after fending off a challenge from Republican Herschel Walker, becoming the only Democrat to win statewide in the midterms. But Walker, aided by robust support in the state’s rural counties, still won 48.6% of the vote in the runoff, despite a candidacy that some Republicans saw as deeply flawed.

And Republicans were victorious in every other statewide election, led by Gov. Brian Kemp, who defeated Abrams in a rematch of their 2018 contest by nearly 300,000 votes.

This year, both parties will fight hard to capture the state’s 16 electoral votes: Democrats are focused heavily on turning out Black voters and suburban voters in metro Atlanta, while Republicans are looking to boost their traditional support in the state’s rural stretches.

Translation: Georgia will continue to be on everyone’s mind this year.

Michigan

2012 margin: Obama +9.5%

2016 margin: Trump +0.2%

2020 margin: Biden +2.8%

Michigan has long been a critical part of the electoral calculus for Democrats, as they carried the state in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012 by appealing to voters in Detroit and its middle- and upper-middle-class suburbs, while also enjoying support among union households and moderates in the exurban and rural stretches of the state.

But the party was stunned by Trump’s narrow 2016 win in the longtime blue state, as the Republican made significant inroads with the base of white working-class voters who had been slowly drifting away from Democrats cycle after cycle.

In 2020, the party put a premium on flipping the Wolverine State back into its column, which Biden did, winning by nearly 3 points over Trump.

And in November, Democrats in the state boasted some of their party’s most impressive victories in the entire country.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won reelection by nearly 11 points, while state Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson easily won their races. The party also flipped control of both houses of the Michigan legislature, and a referendum enshrining reproductive rights into the state Constitution was approved by voters.

Still, despite the Democratic wins, the state’s 15 electoral votes will be a sought-after prize for both parties in 2024.

A major caveat: Biden has faced enormous pushback from the state’s Arab American community over his handling of the conflict in Gaza, which led more than 100,000 Michiganders to vote “uncommitted” instead of selecting the president in the March Democratic primary. It remains unclear how these voters will respond to Harris’ candidacy — or that of another Democrat.

Nevada

2012 margin: Obama +6.7%

2016 margin: Clinton +2.4%

2020 margin: Biden +2.4%

Democrats have been victorious on the presidential level in the Silver State since 2008, when Obama won by nearly 13 points, followed by his victory of nearly 7 points in 2012.

But Clinton and Biden both won the state by a little over 2 points, as Republicans have seen the fast-growing Western state as one that can be flipped into their column, especially if they can make inroads in Democratic-heavy Clark County.

In the 2022 midterms, Republicans got a huge boost in the state when their gubernatorial nominee, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, defeated incumbent Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak.

But Democrats also notched a major win by reelecting Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto to a second term over former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who had been strongly backed by Trump. And after state Democrats approved congressional maps that some in the party saw as especially risky in a GOP wave year, all three of the party’s House incumbents — Dina Titus, Steven Horsford, and Susie Lee — won their respective races.

The ticket-splitting in the midterms once again showed the critical nature of Nevada in national politics. Both parties are looking to win the state in 2024, especially as the economy remains at the forefront of voters’ minds.

North Carolina

2012 margin: Romney +2.04%

2016 margin: Trump +3.7%

2020 margin: Trump +1.3%

Since 1980, Republican presidential nominees have won North Carolina in virtually every election, with the exception being Obama’s razor-thin 2008 victory over then-Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain.

And no presidential candidate has secured a majority of the vote in North Carolina since Romney won 50.4% of the vote in 2012, making this once solidly-red presidential state a real battleground.

Democrats are focusing heavily on North Carolina this year, given the close nature of the results in 2020, as well as the fact that the party sees the state as one where they can appeal to its suburban electorate — a critical part of Biden’s coalition four years ago.

However, the GOP is banking on Trump’s popularity in the state’s rural regions, which could sway the statewide tally in the former president’s favor if he’s able to effectively turn out his supporters.

And in the midst of the presidential race is the highly-competitive gubernatorial contest between Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, two well-known statewide figures who are angling to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.

Pennsylvania

2012 margin: Obama +5.4%

2016 margin: Trump +0.7%

2020 margin: Biden +1.2%

Biden’s hometown of Scranton is dear to his heart so Pennsylvania was always going to be a key state for the party in 2024. And even with Biden out of the presidential race, the state remains just as critical for Democrats.

Democrats carried Pennsylvania in every presidential race from 1992 to 2012, until Trump narrowly edged out Clinton in 2016, gaining support among the white working-class voters who populate the exurban and rural communities across the state.

But Biden clawed back in 2020, boosted by strong returns in Philadelphia and its affluent suburbs, as well as a robust vote in Allegheny County, which includes Pittsburgh.

And in 2022, Democrats had a huge year in the state, electing Lt. Gov. John Fetterman to the Senate to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, while also electing state Attorney General Josh Shapiro in a landslide to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf.

The party also regained control the state House of Representatives, winning back a majority they lost in the 2010 midterms.

Despite the GOP losses, the party — keen on winning back some suburban voters and improving their margins in the state’s rural outposts — will again make a major play for Pennsylvania this fall.

Wisconsin

2012 margin: Obama +6.9%

2016 margin: Trump +0.8%

2020 margin: Biden +0.6%

Wisconsin is one of the most politically-divided states in the country.

Democratic presidential nominees Al Gore and John Kerry eked out statewide wins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, and Obama won the state easily in 2008 and 2012.

But Trump flipped Wisconsin to the GOP in 2016, the first time it had supported a Republican presidential nominee since 1984.

Democrats, stunned by the loss, regrouped and elected Tony Evers as governor in 2018 — knocking out onetime GOP star Scott Walker — while also reelecting Sen. Tammy Baldwin to a second term.

Biden went on to narrowly win the state over Trump in 2020.

And in November 2022, Evers was reelected to a second term over Republican businessman Tim Michels, while GOP Sen. Ron Johnson narrowly defeated then-Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to earn a third term in the upper chamber.

Both parties are eyeing the Badger State — and looking to turn out their respective bases — in what will be another competitive race on the presidential level.